COVID-19 Cases in Malaysia: A Summary

Simulation summary on COVID-19 for all states in Malaysia.

Table of Contents

• Introduction
• Findings and results for all states
  • Infected cases
  • Susceptible cases
  • ICU or Fatal cases
  • Recovered cases
  • Quarantine cases
• Comparing current cases to the simulation result for Malaysia

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Introduction

This is a summarise technical studies on COVID19 simulation in all states in Malaysia. The parameters used are manipulated according to each states COVID19 cases density. There are few parameters which are kept constan which are:

• prog.dist.shape which is at 0.5 infection intensity
• prog.dist.scale which is at 15 infection duration days
• The simulation will start on 1st March 2020 as the 2nd wave of COVID19 begins

The main parameters which are manipulated are:

• The number of hospital capacity of each states
• The number of population of each states
• The number of susceptible sample
• The rate of infection, rate of quarantine, rate of hospitalized and rate of expose towards infection

Details on each parameters can be seen respectively on each states reports

Findings and results for all states

Infected cases

Above plot shows the simulation results of infected cases for all states. From here we can deduce Selangor, Kuala Lumpur and Johor will have the highest cases compare to other states in terms of number of infected. Following the current trend of infected cases, the results may show a similar trend. However, the numbers of infected might differ for upcoming months due to uncertainties in the coming months.

Susceptible cases

Above plot shows the simulation results of susceptible cases all states.

ICU or Fatal cases

Above plot shows the simulation results of ICU or fatal cases all states.

Recovered cases

Above plot shows the simulation results of recovered cases all states.

Quarantine cases

Above plot shows the simulation results of quarantine cases all states.

Comparing current cases to the simulation result for Malaysia

The above graph shows the comparison between the simulation data on COVID-19 cases in Malaysia and the real data from the Ministry of Health Malaysia. The graph indicates that the infected cases in Malaysia in the current trend will peak higher compare to the simulation data. However, the simulation infected trend have taken into consideration towards the recovered cases. Moreover, the current trend is still rising due to the Government’s efforts to test more people. More available data and decrease in uncertainties may help to simulate the COVID-19 more accurately.